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The future of Energy Supply

The energy mix used in fifty years from now will no longer be comparable to that one of today. The old power plants of the sixties and the seventies will retire and have to be replaced. At the same time the frame conditions have changed dramatically. The world-wide environment problems can no longer be ignored. In the meantime, international agreements therefore oblige developed countries to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gas. But also the increasing costs for energy of short-running resources have to be considered when stipulating the national energy policy.

Farsightedness is asked for, because: “Those power plants we are planning today determine the electricity tariff of the coming decades!”

Warmed-up Earth, Exploited Resources –
Vision for the Future and Concepts

The earth heats itself up. The resources are running short. Computer simulations of experts in climate having a good reputation show that a world-wide increase in climate can hardly be avoided any longer, if the percentage of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere caused by people isn’t reduced dramatically.

Since 1990 mainly the emissions energetically caused by CO2 increased world-wide by about 8 % up to 23 milliards of tons.

Experts Expect an Increase of About 38 Milliards of Tons in the Year 2020 — Too Much for our Globe.

Two third of the current emission are produced by western industrial nations and Japan. According to the Federal Environ- mental Agency these emissions have to be reduced up to the middle of the century by 80 %. If all countries reached the same standard of living like the OECD-nations we would need four planets in order to comply with the need of resources. There- fore, industrial nations like Germany are responsible for creating possibilities of development also for the less developed countries. This will only be achieved if we renounce our excessive consumption of resources and establish a lasting energy supply.

Security in Supply and Independence as a Future Target

The imports of resources for the energy supply will increase in future. According to a study ordered by the EU-commission the percentage of 50 % today will mount to 70 % in the year 2030 within the EU. Therewith, the dependency of stable political situations and prices in the countries disposing of resources and on the world market will increase, too. It is alarming that 70 % of the world-wide reserves of petroleum and 50 % of natural gas are existent within the crisis regions at the Persian Gulf and in the Caucasus. In order to guarantee stability and security, the exploitation of national energy sources is necessary, also with regard to economy. But even given that resources would still suffice for long they can only be exploited profitably at a long term if prices increase.

The wind is a capricious companion, not only sailors know about calms. In spite of these vacillations a secured energy production will always be fed into the net. This secured capacity replaces capacities of conventional power plants. The Federal Environment Ministry acts on the assumption that wind energy could be able to have a share of 25 % of the power supply up to the year 2030, solely 15 % by off-shore wind energy plants in the sea. A 100 %-supply with renewable energy sources will only be possible if waterpower plants, solar energy plants, wind energy plants and bio-energy plants are used in conjunction with each other. All together will be able to secure without any problem the federal power requirement. The necessary standard benefit will be provided by other renewable resources by means of a lasting power supply.